Question · Best estimate, expected value and most likely outcome

Valcrest is being sued by a single customer for underperformance of a bottling line. Its lawyers see three outcomes: a settlement at 600,000 (probability 50%), an award of 900,000 (30%), an award of 1,400,000 (20%). The finance director proposes 1,400,000 "out of prudence", the controller 600,000 "the most likely outcome". Write a memo recommending an approach and an order of magnitude, distinguishing the rule, the case data and your judgement.