You are reviewing the impairment test of a bottled water distribution subsidiary of the Hespéris group. Value in use rests on a five-year budget approved by management, then on growth of 5% a year beyond, whereas the long-term average growth of the national beverages market is 1.5%. The last three budgets overestimated actual cash flows by about 25%. Management justifies its figures by an export expansion project for which no contract has been signed and which has not yet been launched. Write a judgement memo on the reasonableness of the assumptions.